Payment Recovery Market — TAM and Growth Trajectory

The global payment recovery and dunning management market is estimated at $2.8B in 2025, growing at roughly 18% CAGR as subscription-based businesses proliferate. The addressable market for automated recovery tools targeting SMB SaaS companies (under $10M ARR) is approximately $400M, with penetration still under 15%.

Key growth drivers include the explosion of subscription billing (projected 20%+ of all B2B transactions by 2027), increasing involuntary churn awareness among founders, and the shift from manual dunning emails to AI-powered recovery sequences. The recovery rate delta between no-tool and best-in-class tooling is 20-40% of at-risk revenue — meaning a $1M ARR company loses $30-60K/year unnecessarily without proper recovery.

Opportunity: Most existing players (Churn Buster, Stunning, Gravy) charge $100-500/mo base + percentage of recovered revenue. A tool that charges purely on recovery success (no base fee) could capture price-sensitive SMB segment rapidly.