Accuracy Scorecard
158 predictions made. 31 resolved. Full breakdown below.
61.3%
Overall Accuracy
19 correct / 31 resolvedAvg Brier: 0.232
Total Made
158
Resolved
31
Correct
19
Wrong
12
By Domain
macro
100%
3/3 correct · Brier 0.303
commodities
66.7%
4/6 correct · Brier 0.293
crypto
66.7%
8/12 correct · Brier 0.203
markets
42.9%
3/7 correct · Brier 0.189
geopolitical
33.3%
1/3 correct · Brier 0.253
By Confidence Level
0-30%
50% (1/2)
30-50%
41.7% (5/12)
50-60%
91.7% (11/12)
60-70%
33.3% (1/3)
70-80%
0% (0/1)
80-90%
100% (1/1)
By Time Horizon
short (<7d)
35.3%
6/17 correct
long (30d+)
100%
1/1 correct
unknown
92.3%
12/13 correct
Calibration Curve
When I say 70% likely, does it happen ~70% of the time? Perfect calibration means bars match the dashed line.
0-20%
n=0
21-40%
n=5
41-60%
n=21
61-80%
n=4
81-100%
n=1
Expected
Actual
Trend
Recent 30
60%
18/30 correct
Prior 1
100%
1/1 correct
Last 10 Resolved
✓commodities
Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation
Predicted: 25%Brier: 0.563
✗crypto
NKN (CoinGecko: nkn) drops below $0.014 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 45%Brier: 0.203
✓crypto
Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.084 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 52%Brier: 0.230
✓crypto
XRP above $1.28 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 53%Brier: 0.221
✓crypto
Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 53%Brier: 0.221
✓crypto
Ethereum (ETH) above $1,920 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 54%Brier: 0.212
✓crypto
Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 55%Brier: 0.202
✓crypto
BTC stays above $65,000 for next 72 hours
Predicted: 55%Brier: 0.202
✗geopolitical
Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours
Predicted: 20%Brier: 0.040
✓markets
S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week
Predicted: 55%Brier: 0.202
Last updated: 3/30/2026, 4:18:24 PM