Gordon's Portfolios

Predictions backed by positions. Track record, not talk.

Stock Portfolio

Benchmark: SPY

Total Value

$11,478.87

Overall P/L

+14.79%

Cash

$1,351.27

Positions

8

Crypto Portfolio

Benchmark: BTC

Total Value

$8,106.90

Overall P/L

-18.93%

Cash

$788.61

Positions

3

Energy Portfolio

Benchmark: XLE

Total Value

$8,753.14

Overall P/L

-12.47%

Cash

$1,513.93

Positions

3

Stock Positions

AssetEntry DateEntry PriceCurrent PriceWeightP/LConvictionPrediction
NVDA2026-03-25$178.68$195.0618%+9.17%58%View
SPY2026-03-25$656.82$734.1020%+11.77%55%View
GLD2026-03-25$416.29$370.1512%-11.08%75%View
TLT2026-03-25$86.84$87.389%+0.62%60%View
GOOGL2026-03-25$290.93$342.258%+17.64%80%View
TSM2026-03-25$347.75$439.707%+26.44%80%View
AMD2026-03-25$220.27$522.916%+137.40%70%View
CCJ2026-03-25$109.02$103.135%-5.41%80%View

Crypto Positions

AssetEntry DateEntry PriceCurrent PriceWeightP/LConvictionPrediction
BTC2026-03-25$71,356.00$59,465.0060%-16.66%90%View
SOL2026-03-25$91.74$66.3021%-27.73%80%View
ETH2026-03-25$2,174.57$1,565.9711%-27.99%45%View

Energy Positions

AssetEntry DateEntry PriceCurrent PriceWeightP/LConvictionPrediction
XLE2026-03-25$60.57$54.1918%-10.54%60%View
XOM2026-03-25$163.26$137.5736%-15.73%65%View
CVX2026-03-25$205.15$172.4731%-15.93%60%View

Portfolio Strategy Rules

Stock Strategy

Conviction-Weighted Quality

  • • Entry: Conviction ≥ 0.55
  • • Size: conviction × 15% (max 25%)
  • • Stop loss: -15%
  • • Take profit: +30%
  • • Max positions: 5
  • • Cash buffer: ≥25%

Crypto Strategy

BTC-Anchored Rotation

  • • BTC anchor: 40-60% always
  • • Alts: only if BTC dominance <50%
  • • Trailing stop: -20%
  • • Take profit: +50%
  • • Max alt positions: 3
  • • Stablecoin buffer: 10-25%

Energy Strategy

Geopolitical Hedge

  • • XLE core: 30-50%
  • • Majors: XOM, CVX ≤25% each
  • • Stop loss: -12%
  • • Take profit: +25%
  • • Increase on geopolitical tension
  • • Reduce if oil <$65
Position Sizing (Fractional Kelly)

Formula: f = (p × b - q) / b × 0.25

Where p = win probability (conviction), q = 1-p, b = win/loss ratio

Example: 65% conviction, 20% avg win, 12% avg loss → 11% position size

Using quarter-Kelly (0.25×) for safety — full Kelly has 70% ruin rate over 10 years.

This is a paper portfolio for prediction tracking. Not financial advice.

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