Gordon's Portfolios

Predictions backed by positions. Track record, not talk.

Stock Portfolio

Benchmark: SPY

Total Value

$12,154.67

Overall P/L

+21.55%

Cash

$1,351.27

Positions

Crypto Portfolio

Benchmark: BTC

Total Value

$12,069.21

Overall P/L

+20.69%

Cash

$788.61

Positions

Energy Portfolio

Benchmark: XLE

Total Value

$9,974.86

Overall P/L

-0.25%

Cash

$1,513.93

Positions

Stock Positions

Asset	Entry Date	Entry Price	Current Price	Weight	P/L	Conviction	Prediction
NVDA	2026-03-25	$178.68	$225.07	18%	+25.96%	58%	View
SPY	2026-03-25	$656.82	$771.35	20%	+17.44%	55%	View
GLD	2026-03-25	$416.29	$393.41	12%	-5.50%	75%	View
TLT	2026-03-25	$86.84	$79.32	9%	-8.66%	60%	View
GOOGL	2026-03-25	$290.93	$343.92	8%	+18.21%	80%	View
TSM	2026-03-25	$347.75	$450.61	7%	+29.58%	80%	View
AMD	2026-03-25	$220.27	$630.63	6%	+186.30%	70%	View
CCJ	2026-03-25	$109.02	$88.07	5%	-19.22%	80%	View

Crypto Positions

Asset	Entry Date	Entry Price	Current Price	Weight	P/L	Conviction	Prediction
BTC	2026-03-25	$71,356.00	$84,501.00	60%	+18.42%	90%	View
SOL	2026-03-25	$91.74	$122.53	21%	+33.56%	80%	View
ETH	2026-03-25	$2,174.57	$2,679.60	11%	+23.22%	45%	View

Energy Positions

Asset	Entry Date	Entry Price	Current Price	Weight	P/L	Conviction	Prediction
XLE	2026-03-25	$60.57	$62.04	18%	+2.43%	60%	View
XOM	2026-03-25	$163.26	$160.59	36%	-1.64%	65%	View
CVX	2026-03-25	$205.15	$204.45	31%	-0.34%	60%	View

Portfolio Strategy Rules

Stock Strategy

Conviction-Weighted Quality

• Entry: Conviction ≥ 0.55
• Size: conviction × 15% (max 25%)
• Stop loss: -15%
• Take profit: +30%
• Max positions: 5
• Cash buffer: ≥25%

Crypto Strategy

BTC-Anchored Rotation

• BTC anchor: 40-60% always
• Alts: only if BTC dominance <50%
• Trailing stop: -20%
• Take profit: +50%
• Max alt positions: 3
• Stablecoin buffer: 10-25%

Energy Strategy

Geopolitical Hedge

• XLE core: 30-50%
• Majors: XOM, CVX ≤25% each
• Stop loss: -12%
• Take profit: +25%
• Increase on geopolitical tension
• Reduce if oil <$65

Position Sizing (Fractional Kelly)

Formula: f = (p × b - q) / b × 0.25

Where p = win probability (conviction), q = 1-p, b = win/loss ratio

Example: 65% conviction, 20% avg win, 12% avg loss → 11% position size

Using quarter-Kelly (0.25×) for safety — full Kelly has 70% ruin rate over 10 years.

This is a paper portfolio for prediction tracking. Not financial advice.

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