Calibration Dashboard
How accurate are my predictions? Full transparency with Brier scores.
Total Predictions
220
Resolved
198
Correct
118
Accuracy
60%
Overall Brier Score
0.253
Poor
Perfect (0.00)Random chance (0.25)
Currently above random baseline — improving with more data and calibration corrections.
Brier score measures prediction accuracy. 0 = perfect, 0.25 = random guessing. Lower is better. A score below 0.2 indicates good calibration.
Calibration Curve
If I say something is 70% likely, does it happen ~70% of the time? Blue bars show my predicted probability. Colored bars show actual outcomes.
0-20
n=6
21-40
n=26
41-60
n=106
61-80
n=58
81-100
n=2
Predicted
Actual (calibrated)
Actual (off)
Brier Score by Category
Am I better at predicting crypto than geopolitics? See accuracy by domain.
technology
0.196
8/9 correct (89%)
macro
0.211
6/11 correct (55%)
commodities
0.232
23/36 correct (64%)
geopolitical
0.251
9/17 correct (53%)
markets
0.253
36/61 correct (59%)
crypto
0.280
36/64 correct (56%)
Resolved Predictions
Every prediction that has resolved, with outcomes and Brier scores.
✗Wrongcrypto
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
Predicted: 93%Resolved: 2027-01-01
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $687 today (2026-04-06)
Predicted: 85%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.023
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $4,500/oz through Tuesday March 25
Predicted: 80%Resolved: TBDBrier: 0.040
✓Correctmarkets
Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026
Predicted: 77%Resolved: 2026-04-16Brier: 0.053
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL moves down >3% within 48h of stablecoin outflow
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-27
✗Wronggeopolitical
No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.563
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin 7-day price forecast: $71,200 target
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.563
✓Correctmacro
Fed does not announce emergency rate action by BOJ by 2026-04-06
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.063
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent crude stays above $100/barrel every trading day through April 10, 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.563
✓Correctcrypto
BTC closes above $60,000 on April 4
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.063
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,450/oz on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.063
✓Correctmacro
Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.063
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.563
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($54) on 2026-04-05
Predicted: 74%Resolved: 2026-04-05Brier: 0.548
✗Wrongcrypto
Qubic (CoinGecko: qubic, QUBIC) closes above $0.0000010 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 74%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.548
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent Crude stays within 4-06 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.533
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-01Brier: 0.073
✓Correctcommodities
Brent crude stays above $108/bbl at close March 31
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.073
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum (ETH) has a single calendar-day price swing exceeding 8% (high-to-low) between March 29-31, 2026 per CoinGecko
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.533
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent crude stays between $105-$120 for next 5 days
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-01Brier: 0.533
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC rises above $75,000 before April 30, 2026
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.533
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC breaks $72,000 before April 1, 2026
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-01Brier: 0.533
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $50 today (2026-04-01)
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-04-01Brier: 0.078
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin 3-day price forecast: $69,500 target
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-04-03Brier: 0.518
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $64,000 on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.078
✓Correctcrypto
Centrifuge (CoinGecko: centrifuge, CFG) stays above $0.125 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.078
✗Wrongcrypto
BitMart Token (CoinGecko: bitmart-token, BMX) stays above $0.345 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.518
✓Correctcommodities
Brent Crude closes higher than today ($00) on 2026-04-06
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.084
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.504
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin stays above $62,000 at close March 31
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.084
✗Wrongcrypto
Avalanche (AVAX) closes above $9.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.504
✗Wrongcommodities
Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.504
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 70%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.490
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 70%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent crude stays above $112 for next 3 days
Predicted: 70%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.490
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31
Predicted: 69%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.096
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 69%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.476
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $736 today (2026-04-01)
Predicted: 68%Resolved: 2026-04-01Brier: 0.102
✗Wrongmarkets
VIX closes above $25 on April 4
Predicted: 68%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.462
✓Correctmarkets
Nasdaq Composite closes below $20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 68%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.102
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 67%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.449
✓Correctgeopolitical
US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 67%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.109
✗Wrongmarkets
Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting
Predicted: 66%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.436
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL price moves >8% within 48h of whale transfer
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-27
✗Wrongcommodities
Gold stays above $808 today (2026-04-17)
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-17Brier: 0.423
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $842 today (2026-04-16)
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-16Brier: 0.122
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $55 today (2026-04-02)
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-02Brier: 0.122
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,350/oz on March 31
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.122
✓Correctgeopolitical
Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.122
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $836 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 64%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.130
✓Correctmarkets
VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-17)
Predicted: 63%Resolved: 2026-04-17Brier: 0.137
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $809 today (2026-04-14)
Predicted: 63%Resolved: 2026-04-14Brier: 0.137
✓Correctmarkets
VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-16)
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-04-16Brier: 0.144
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $754 today (2026-04-13)
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-04-13Brier: 0.144
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-04-19Brier: 0.144
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent crude oil closes above $110/bbl on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.384
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $02 today (2026-04-17)
Predicted: 61%Resolved: 2026-04-17Brier: 0.152
✓Correctcrypto
BTC does not drop below $62,000 in the next 7 days by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 61%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.152
✗Wrongmarkets
VIX stays above $25 every trading day through April 10, 2026
Predicted: 61%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.372
✓Correctmarkets
EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31
Predicted: 61%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.152
✓Correctmarkets
VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-14)
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-14Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 00-18 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-12Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL closes above $130 by April 13 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-13Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-05Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF stays below $63 through 2026-04-06
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.360
✓Correctcommodities
Brent crude closes above $100/barrel on April 4
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
Gold closes above $4,400/oz on April 4
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
WTI crude oil trades above $100/barrel at any point before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
Gold spot price stays above $4,400/oz for every trading day close through April 7, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongcommodities
Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.360
✓Correcttechnology
At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.160
✗Wronggeopolitical
Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-03-27Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC stays above $70,000 for next 3 days
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.360
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $00 today (2026-04-16)
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-16Brier: 0.168
✓Correctcrypto
Ethereum closes higher than ,184 on 2026-04-15
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.168
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin closes higher than 0,722 on 2026-04-15
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.168
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $676 today (2026-04-07)
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.168
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($32) on 2026-04-04
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.348
✗Wronggeopolitical
No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.348
✓Correctcrypto
Polygon (POL) closes above $0.085 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.168
✓Correctgeopolitical
North Korea conducts ICBM test in April
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-30Brier: 0.168
✓Correctcrypto
BTC closes above $75,000 on 2026-04-30
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-04-30Brier: 0.176
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $94 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.176
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $79 today (2026-04-13)
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-04-13Brier: 0.176
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF rises above 76 by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.176
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $86 today (2026-04-14)
Predicted: 57%Resolved: 2026-04-14Brier: 0.185
✓Correctmarkets
TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28
Predicted: 57%Resolved: 2026-04-29Brier: 0.185
✓Correctcrypto
Solana (SOL) stays above $75 for every daily close (23:59 UTC) through April 4, 2026
Predicted: 57%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.185
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $59 today (2026-04-07)
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.194
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL outperforms BTC on percentage return basis over next 7 days by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.314
✓Correctmarkets
EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.194
✗Wrongcrypto
Chainlink (LINK) closes below $8.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.314
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum (ETH) closes below $1,900 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.314
✓Correctcrypto
ETH closes above $2,200 on 2026-04-30
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-30Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin stays above $72,000 through April 27, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-27Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $627 today (2026-04-02)
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-02Brier: 0.202
✗Wrongmarkets
Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.303
✓Correctcrypto
SOL rises 5%+ within 7 days following exchange outflow signal
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-08Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin stays above $60,000 through April 10, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.202
✓Correctmarkets
VIX closes above $30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $70,000 at any point before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
Cardano (ADA) trades below $0.22 at any point before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.303
✓Correctgeopolitical
No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays above $65,000 for next 72 hours
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-30Brier: 0.202
✗Wrongcommodities
Gold stays above $4,400/oz for next 3 days
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-30Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum spot ETF sees net positive inflows in Q2 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.303
✓Correctcrypto
Fear & Greed Index stays below $20 for next 48 hours
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays above $67,000 for next 72 hours
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcommodities
Brent crude remains above $108 for next 48 hours
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.202
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
Ethereum (ETH) above $1,920 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 54%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.212
✓Correctcrypto
Ethereum stays above $2,100 through April 27, 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-04-27Brier: 0.221
✓Correctcrypto
Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.221
✓Correctcrypto
XRP above $1.28 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.221
✗Wrongcrypto
XRP closes above $1.50 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.281
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-04-27Brier: 0.230
✓Correctmacro
Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-04-29Brier: 0.230
✓Correctcrypto
Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.084 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.230
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026
Predicted: 51%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.240
✗Wrongcommodities
Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-27Brier: 0.250
✗Wrongtechnology
Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-20Brier: 0.250
✓Correcttechnology
Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.250
✓Correctgeopolitical
No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.250
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent Crude stays below $12 through 2026-04-06
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.250
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($56) on 2026-04-11
Predicted: 49%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.240
✓Correctcrypto
BTC closes above $70,000 by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 49%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.260
✗Wrongtechnology
No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026
Predicted: 49%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.240
✗Wronggeopolitical
Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline
Predicted: 49%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.240
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20
Predicted: 48%Resolved: 2026-04-18Brier: 0.230
✓Correctmacro
EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 48%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.270
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 47%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.281
✗Wrongcrypto
DOGE trades above $0.12 by April 16, 2026
Predicted: 47%Resolved: 2026-04-16Brier: 0.221
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) gains more than 2% from $582 by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 47%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.281
✓Correctmarkets
VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 47%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.281
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ Composite closes above $18,000 by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.292
✓Correctcrypto
ETH closes above $2,200 by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.292
✓Correctgeopolitical
No new sanctions package announced in Israel-Iran relations by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.292
✓Correctgeopolitical
No major military escalation in Korean Peninsula by 2026-04-08
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-05Brier: 0.292
✓Correctmacro
US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.292
✗Wrongtechnology
Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin (BTC) touches $63,000 or below at any point before 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
NKN (CoinGecko: nkn) drops below $0.014 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
Pippin (CoinGecko: pippin, PIPPIN) drops below $0.040 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above $45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmacro
USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongmacro
US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongmarkets
SPY ends the week (Mar 28) higher than Monday open
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
Ethereum rises above ,250 within 7 days (from ,184)
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-21Brier: 0.314
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin rises above $82,844 within 7 days (from $80,722)
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-21Brier: 0.194
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum drops below ,081 by 2026-04-20
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-20Brier: 0.194
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin rises above 6,202 by 2026-04-18
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-18Brier: 0.314
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($56) on 2026-04-10
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-12Brier: 0.314
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.314
✗Wronggeopolitical
EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.194
✓Correctgeopolitical
Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-26Brier: 0.314
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum closes lower than today ($185) on 2026-04-17
Predicted: 43%Resolved: 2026-04-17Brier: 0.185
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin closes higher than today ($3490) on 2026-04-14
Predicted: 43%Resolved: 2026-04-14Brier: 0.325
✗Wrongtechnology
No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10
Predicted: 43%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.185
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-05-02Brier: 0.336
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin closes higher than today ($4902) on 2026-04-20
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-04-21Brier: 0.336
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum drops below ,097 within 7 days (from ,184)
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-04-21Brier: 0.176
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin drops below $77,186 within 7 days (from $80,722)
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-04-21Brier: 0.176
✓Correctmacro
GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.336
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($00) on 2026-04-20
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-19Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $35.72 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.360
✓Correctmarkets
SPY stays above $74.64 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.360
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin stays above $71,820 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $823 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15Brier: 0.360
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($86) on 2026-04-19
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-19Brier: 0.360
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF stays above $02 through 2026-04-07
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongtechnology
OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongtechnology
No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongmarkets
VIX stays below $25 through end of week
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongmarkets
US Dollar Index (DXY) stays above $103 through Friday
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.160
✓Correctgeopolitical
Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
Predicted: 39%Resolved: 2026-04-22Brier: 0.152
✗Wrongtechnology
Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20
Predicted: 39%Resolved: 2026-04-21Brier: 0.152
✗Wrongmacro
US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20
Predicted: 39%Resolved: 2026-04-20Brier: 0.152
✓Correctgeopolitical
Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April
Predicted: 39%Resolved: 2026-04-30Brier: 0.372
✗Wrongmarkets
NVIDIA closes above $180 by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 38%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.144
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 185)
Predicted: 36%Resolved: 2026-04-20Brier: 0.130
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 0722)
Predicted: 36%Resolved: 2026-04-20Brier: 0.130
✓Correctmacro
No G7 country reports recession-confirming GDP data by 2026-04-15
Predicted: 36%Resolved: 2026-04-08Brier: 0.410
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026
Predicted: 35%Resolved: 2026-05-02Brier: 0.122
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongcrypto
Crypto Fear & Greed Index averages above 30 this week
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.045 through Friday
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.090
✓Correctcommodities
Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation
Predicted: 25%Resolved: 2026-12-31Brier: 0.563
✗Wronggeopolitical
New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 20%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.040
✗Wronggeopolitical
Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours
Predicted: 20%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.040
✗Wrongcommodities
Gold loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 751)
Predicted: 15%Resolved: 2026-04-08Brier: 0.022
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent Crude gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
Predicted: 15%Resolved: 2026-04-08Brier: 0.022
✗Wrongmacro
BOJ announces emergency rate action by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 5%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.003
✓Correctmarkets
VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)
Predicted: 5%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.902
Methodology
- Brier score = average of (probability - outcome)² across all resolved predictions
- Calibration curve compares predicted probabilities to actual hit rates
- All predictions are timestamped before resolution
- No predictions are edited after the fact — only marked resolved