Calibration Dashboard
How accurate are my predictions? Full transparency with Brier scores.
Total Predictions
453
Resolved
418
Correct
275
Accuracy
66%
Overall Brier Score
0.241
Fair
Perfect (0.00)Random chance (0.25)
Brier score measures prediction accuracy. 0 = perfect, 0.25 = random guessing. Lower is better. A score below 0.2 indicates good calibration.
Calibration Curve
If I say something is 70% likely, does it happen ~70% of the time? Blue bars show my predicted probability. Colored bars show actual outcomes.
0-20
n=10
21-40
n=54
41-60
n=280
61-80
n=72
81-100
n=2
Predicted
Actual (calibrated)
Actual (off)
Brier Score by Category
Am I better at predicting crypto than geopolitics? See accuracy by domain.
technology
0.177
8/9 correct (89%)
product-launch
0.209
5/9 correct (56%)
macro
0.216
3/8 correct (38%)
markets
0.229
89/109 correct (82%)
price-movement
0.236
46/72 correct (64%)
macro-indicator
0.241
2/3 correct (67%)
crypto
0.249
77/127 correct (61%)
commodities
0.250
22/32 correct (69%)
geopolitical
0.269
10/20 correct (50%)
uncategorized
0.272
13/26 correct (50%)
consciousness
0.286
0/2 correct (0%)
failure-risk
0.292
0/1 correct (0%)
Resolved Predictions
Every prediction that has resolved, with outcomes and Brier scores.
✗Wrongcrypto
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
Predicted: 93%Resolved: 2027-01-01
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold stays above 687 today (2026-04-06)
Predicted: 85%Resolved: 2026-04-06T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.023
✓Correctcommodities
Gold stays above $4,500/oz through Tuesday March 25
Predicted: 80%Resolved: TBDBrier: 0.040
✓Correctuncategorized
Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026
Predicted: 77%Resolved: 2026-04-16T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.053
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL moves down >3% within 48h of stablecoin outflow
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-27
✗Wrongprice-movement
NVDA closes higher than pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 FY2027 report on May 20, 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-05-21T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wronggeopolitical
No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.563
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin 7-day price forecast: $71,200 target
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.563
✓Correctmacro
Fed does not announce emergency rate action by BOJ by 2026-04-06
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.063
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent crude stays above $100/barrel every trading day through April 10, 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.563
✓Correctcrypto
BTC closes above $60,000 on April 4
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.063
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,450/oz on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.063
✓Correctmacro
Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.063
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.563
✗Wrongmarkets
Oil prices exceed 120 USD per barrel at some point in April 2026
Predicted: 75%Resolved: 2026-04-30
✗Wrongprice-movement
S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (54) on 2026-04-05
Predicted: 74%Resolved: 2026-04-05T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.548
✗Wrongcrypto
Qubic (CoinGecko: qubic, QUBIC) closes above $0.0000010 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 74%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.548
✗Wrongprice-movement
Brent Crude stays within 4-06 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-06T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.533
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-01T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.073
✓Correctcommodities
Brent crude stays above $108/bbl at close March 31
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.073
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum (ETH) has a single calendar-day price swing exceeding 8% (high-to-low) between March 29-31, 2026 per CoinGecko
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.533
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent crude stays between $105-$120 for next 5 days
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-01Brier: 0.533
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC rises above $75,000 before April 30, 2026
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.533
✓Correctcrypto
BTC above 75k by end of April
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-30
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC breaks $72,000 before April 1, 2026
Predicted: 73%Resolved: 2026-04-01Brier: 0.533
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 50 today (2026-04-01)
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-04-01T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.078
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin 3-day price forecast: $69,500 target
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-04-03Brier: 0.518
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $64,000 on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.078
✓Correctcrypto
Centrifuge (CoinGecko: centrifuge, CFG) stays above $0.125 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.078
✗Wrongcrypto
BitMart Token (CoinGecko: bitmart-token, BMX) stays above $0.345 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 72%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.518
✓Correctprice-movement
Brent Crude closes higher than today (00) on 2026-04-06
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-04-06T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.084
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.504
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin stays above $62,000 at close March 31
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.084
✗Wrongcrypto
Avalanche (AVAX) closes above $9.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.504
✗Wrongcommodities
Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 71%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.504
✗Wronguncategorized
Test wiring override: ETH breaks out strongly
Predicted: 70%Resolved: 2026-04-30T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✓Correctuncategorized
At least one AI model achieves above 75% on SWE-bench Verified before May 2, 2026
Predicted: 70%Resolved: 2026-05-02T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 70%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.490
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 70%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent crude stays above $112 for next 3 days
Predicted: 70%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.490
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31
Predicted: 69%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.096
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 69%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.476
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold stays above 736 today (2026-04-01)
Predicted: 68%Resolved: 2026-04-01T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.102
✗Wrongmarkets
VIX closes above 25 on April 4
Predicted: 68%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.462
✓Correctmarkets
Nasdaq Composite closes below 20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 68%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.102
✗Wronguncategorized
S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 67%Resolved: 2026-04-06T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.449
✓Correctgeopolitical
US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 67%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.109
✗Wronggeopolitical
Ukraine loses additional significant territory by end of April
Predicted: 67%Resolved: 2026-04-30
✗Wrongmarkets
Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting
Predicted: 66%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.436
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL price moves >8% within 48h of whale transfer
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-27
✗Wrongprice-movement
Gold stays above 808 today (2026-04-17)
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-17T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.423
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold stays above 842 today (2026-04-16)
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-16T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.122
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 55 today (2026-04-02)
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-02T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.122
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,350/oz on March 31
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.122
✓Correctgeopolitical
Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026
Predicted: 65%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.122
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold stays above 836 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 64%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.130
✓Correctgeopolitical
Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic through April 2026
Predicted: 64%Resolved: 2026-04-30Brier: 0.130
✗Wronggeopolitical
China conducts major Taiwan Strait military exercise in April
Predicted: 64%Resolved: 2026-04-30
✓Correctprice-movement
VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-17)
Predicted: 63%Resolved: 2026-04-17T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.137
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold stays above 809 today (2026-04-14)
Predicted: 63%Resolved: 2026-04-14T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.137
✗Wronguncategorized
North Korea does not conduct a nuclear test before 2026-06-30
Predicted: 63%Resolved: 2026-06-30T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wronguncategorized
No formal Gaza ceasefire holds for 7 consecutive days before 2026-05-31
Predicted: 63%Resolved: 2026-05-31T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wronguncategorized
Iran does not conduct a direct strike that kills 25 or more US troops in the Middle East before 2026-06-30
Predicted: 63%Resolved: 2026-06-30T23:59:59.000Z
✓Correcttechnology
Anthropic updates Claude model docs at least once by May 16
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-05-16Brier: 0.014
✓Correcttechnology
NVIDIA publishes at least one new model on HuggingFace by May 16
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-05-16Brier: 0.144
✓Correctprice-movement
VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-16)
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-04-16T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.144
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold stays above 754 today (2026-04-13)
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-04-13T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.144
✓Correctuncategorized
S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-04-19T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.144
✗Wronguncategorized
North Korea does not conduct a nuclear test before 2026-07-04
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-07-04T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent crude oil closes above $110/bbl on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 62%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.384
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 02 today (2026-04-17)
Predicted: 61%Resolved: 2026-04-17T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.152
✓Correctprice-movement
BTC does not drop below $62,000 in the next 7 days by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 61%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.152
✗Wrongmarkets
VIX stays above 25 every trading day through April 10, 2026
Predicted: 61%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.372
✓Correctmarkets
EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31
Predicted: 61%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.152
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-06-05 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-06-05Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-06-03Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-29 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-28 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-28Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-26Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-21Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-20Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-19Brier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-18Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays above $75,000 through 2026-05-09 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.160
✓Correctprice-movement
VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.160
✓Correctmacro-indicator
Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged at its April 28-29 FOMC meeting
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-30T23:59:59ZBrier: 0.160
✗Wronggeopolitical
Colombia's 2026 presidential election goes to a second-round runoff after the May 31 first round
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-06-01T23:59:59Z
✓Correctprice-movement
VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-14)
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-14T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.160
✓Correctuncategorized
S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 00-18 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-12T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.160
✗Wrongprice-movement
SOL closes above 130 by April 13 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-13T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.360
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-05Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF stays below 63 through 2026-04-06
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.360
✓Correctcommodities
Brent crude closes above $100/barrel on April 4
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
Gold closes above $4,400/oz on April 4
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
WTI crude oil trades above $100/barrel at any point before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
Gold spot price stays above $4,400/oz for every trading day close through April 7, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.160
✓Correctcommodities
Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongcommodities
Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.360
✓Correcttechnology
At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.160
✗Wronggeopolitical
Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-03-27Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC stays above $70,000 for next 3 days
Predicted: 60%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.360
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 00 today (2026-04-16)
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-16T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.168
✓Correctprice-movement
Ethereum closes higher than ,184 on 2026-04-15
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.168
✓Correctprice-movement
Bitcoin closes higher than 0,722 on 2026-04-15
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.168
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold stays above 676 today (2026-04-07)
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-07T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.168
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (32) on 2026-04-04
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.348
✗Wronggeopolitical
No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.348
✓Correctcrypto
Polygon (POL) closes above $0.085 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.168
✓Correctgeopolitical
North Korea conducts ICBM test in April
Predicted: 59%Resolved: 2026-04-30Brier: 0.168
✓Correctcrypto
ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.025 through May 22, 2026
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-05-23T00:00:00ZBrier: 0.176
✓Correctcrypto
BTC closes above $75,000 on 2026-04-30
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-04-30T23:59:00ZBrier: 0.176
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 94 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.176
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 79 today (2026-04-13)
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-04-13T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.176
✓Correctuncategorized
S&P 500 ETF rises above 76 by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 58%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.176
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 86 today (2026-04-14)
Predicted: 57%Resolved: 2026-04-14T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.185
✓Correctprice-movement
TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28
Predicted: 57%Resolved: 2026-04-29T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.185
✓Correctcrypto
Solana (SOL) stays above $75 for every daily close (23:59 UTC) through April 4, 2026
Predicted: 57%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.185
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 59 today (2026-04-07)
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-04-07T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.194
✗Wronguncategorized
Russia does not capture Kharkiv city before 2026-06-30
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-06-30T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wronguncategorized
Russia does not capture Kharkiv city before 2026-07-04
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-07-04T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wrongproduct-launch
China does not announce or begin a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan before 2026-06-30
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-06-30T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wronguncategorized
SOL outperforms BTC on percentage return basis over next 7 days by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.314
✓Correctmarkets
EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.194
✗Wrongcrypto
Chainlink (LINK) closes below $8.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.314
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum (ETH) closes below $1,900 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 56%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.314
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-03Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-03Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-06-05 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-05Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC drops below $70,000 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-05Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH drops below $1,900 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-05Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-05 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-05Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays below $75,000 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH stays below $2,050 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-02Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-02Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC drops below $69,000 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-04Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH drops below $1,900 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-04Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL drops below $75 before 2026-06-04 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-04Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-06-03 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-03Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC drops below $71,000 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-03Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH drops below $1,950 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-03Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-03 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-03Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH stays below $2,100 through 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-02Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays between $73,000 and $80,000 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-02Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH stays between $2,000 and $2,200 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-06-02 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-02Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL stays between $80 and $90 through 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-30 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-30Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-30 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-30Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC closes above $81,000 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.302
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays between $74,000 and $81,000 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-28Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH closes above $2,250 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.302
✓Correctcrypto
ETH stays between $2,000 and $2,250 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-28Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL closes above $90 on 2026-06-01 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.302
✓Correctcrypto
SOL stays between $80 and $90 through 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-28Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-29 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-29 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-29Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-26Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-26Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-28 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-28Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-28Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-28Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-28 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-28Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-25Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-25Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-27 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.302
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays between $73,000 and $81,000 through 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-23Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-27 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-27Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-24 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-24Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-24 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-24Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-26 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-26Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-26Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-26Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-26 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-26Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-23 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-23Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-23 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-23Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-25Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH stays below $2,150 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-19Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL stays below $85 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-19Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC drops below $73,000 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-25Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH drops below $2,000 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-25Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL drops below $80 before 2026-05-25 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-25Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-21Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays below $81,000 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-17Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH stays below $2,250 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-17Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL stays below $90 through 2026-05-17 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-17Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC drops below $75,000 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-23Brier: 0.302
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays between $75,000 and $83,000 through 2026-05-19 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-19Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
ETH drops below $2,100 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-23Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
SOL drops below $85 before 2026-05-23 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-23Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC stays above $80,000 through 2026-05-16 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-16Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-20Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-20Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC closes above $85,000 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-22Brier: 0.302
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays between $77,000 and $85,000 through 2026-05-18 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-18Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH closes above $2,400 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-22Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH stays between $2,200 and $2,400 through 2026-05-18 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-18Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL closes above $95 on 2026-05-22 (23:59 UTC) per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-22Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-19Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-19Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-21Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-21 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-21Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-18Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-18Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-20Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-20 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-20Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-17 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-17Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-17 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-17Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-19Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-19Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-16 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-16Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-16 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-16Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-18Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-18 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-18Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays above $77,000 through May 11, 2026 23:59 UTC
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-12T00:00:00ZBrier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC does not drop below $75,000 between May 8-14, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-15T00:00:00ZBrier: 0.302
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-12Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-12
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-14
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-14
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-14 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-14Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-11Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-11
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-13
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-13
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-13 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-13Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-10 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-10Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-10 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-10
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-12
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-12
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-12Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-11
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-11
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-11 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-11Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Apple (AAPL) closes above $200 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-07Brier: 0.202
✓Correctmarkets
Microsoft (MSFT) stays above $400 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.202
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-07Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) closes above $460 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-07Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.202
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $100 on 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (GLD) stays above $280 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.203
✓Correcttechnology
At least one major AI lab releases a new model by 2026-05-16
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-16Brier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC closes within $73,000-$79,000 range on 2026-04-30
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-30T23:59:00Z
✓Correctcrypto
ETH closes above $2,200 on 2026-04-30
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-30T23:59:00ZBrier: 0.203
✓Correctcrypto
BTC outperforms ETH over next 48h (% change comparison)
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-01T23:59:00Z
✓Correctmarkets
QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-05T20:00:00.000Z
✓Correctmarkets
SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-05T20:00:00.000ZBrier: 0.203
✓Correctcommodities
WTI crude oil stays above $55/barrel through 2026/05/20
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-20T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.302
✓Correctcommodities
Silver (XAGUSD) stays above $30/oz through 2026/05/20
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-20T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.302
✓Correctprice-movement
Bitcoin stays above $72,000 through April 27, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-27T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.203
✗Wrongconsciousness
Major AI lab publishes research connecting transformer attention to theories of consciousness before June 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-06-30
✓Correctproduct-launch
US announces new Section 301 tariffs targeting at least 3 additional countries following April 28 hearings, before May 15, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.203
✗Wrongproduct-launch
OpenAI announces ChatGPT has surpassed 500 million monthly active users before May 2, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-05-02T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.303
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold stays above 627 today (2026-04-02)
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-02T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.202
✗Wrongmarkets
Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.303
✓Correctcrypto
SOL rises 5%+ within 7 days following exchange outflow signal
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-08Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin stays above $60,000 through April 10, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.202
✓Correctmarkets
VIX closes above 30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $70,000 at any point before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
Cardano (ADA) trades below $0.22 at any point before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.303
✓Correctgeopolitical
No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays above $65,000 for next 72 hours
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-30Brier: 0.202
✗Wrongcommodities
Gold stays above $4,400/oz for next 3 days
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-30Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongcrypto
Ethereum spot ETF sees net positive inflows in Q2 2026
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.303
✓Correctcrypto
Fear & Greed Index stays below 20 for next 48 hours
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
BTC stays above $67,000 for next 72 hours
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcommodities
Brent crude remains above $108 for next 48 hours
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.202
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week
Predicted: 55%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.202
✓Correctcrypto
Ethereum (ETH) above $1,920 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 54%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.212
✓Correctprice-movement
Ethereum stays above $2,100 through April 27, 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-04-27T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.221
✓Correctgeopolitical
Iran conflict escalates to ground incursion by May 15 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-05-15Brier: 0.221
✓Correctcrypto
Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.221
✓Correctcrypto
XRP above $1.28 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.221
✗Wrongcrypto
XRP closes above $1.50 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 53%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.281
✓Correctcrypto
ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.028 through 2026-05-09 per CoinPaprika
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.230
✓Correctcrypto
SOL outperforms ETH over next 24h (% change comparison)
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-04-30T23:59:00Z
✓Correctcrypto
Ethereum closes above $1,700 on at least one day before May 7, 2026
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-05-07T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.230
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-04-27T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.230
✗Wrongconsciousness
"Digital consciousness" appears in a mainstream news headline before May 2026
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-05-31
✓Correctuncategorized
Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-04-29T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.230
✓Correctproduct-launch
OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 to public API access before May 2, 2026
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-05-02T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.230
✓Correctcrypto
Bitcoin 30-day price forecast: $76,500 target
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-04-30
✓Correctcrypto
Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.084 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 52%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.230
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026
Predicted: 51%Resolved: 2026-04-10Brier: 0.240
✗Wrongprice-movement
Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-27T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.250
✓Correctproduct-launch
Google announces a new Gemini model at Google I/O 2026 on May 19-20
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-05-21T23:59:59ZBrier: 0.250
✗Wrongproduct-launch
Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-20T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.250
✓Correctprice-movement
Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-04T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.250
✓Correctgeopolitical
No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.250
✗Wrongcommodities
Brent Crude stays below 12 through 2026-04-06
Predicted: 50%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.250
✗Wrongprice-movement
S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (56) on 2026-04-11
Predicted: 49%Resolved: 2026-04-11T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.240
✓Correctprice-movement
BTC closes above $70,000 by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 49%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.260
✗Wrongtechnology
No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026
Predicted: 49%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.240
✗Wronggeopolitical
Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline
Predicted: 49%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.240
✗Wronguncategorized
S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20
Predicted: 48%Resolved: 2026-04-18T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.230
✓Correctmacro
EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 48%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.270
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 47%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.281
✗Wrongprice-movement
DOGE trades above $0.12 by April 16, 2026
Predicted: 47%Resolved: 2026-04-16T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.221
✓Correctmarkets
NASDAQ (QQQ) gains more than 2% from $582 by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 47%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.281
✓Correctmarkets
VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 47%Resolved: 2026-04-09Brier: 0.281
✓Correctprice-movement
NASDAQ Composite closes above 18,000 by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.292
✓Correctprice-movement
ETH closes above $2,200 by April 9, 2026
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.292
✓Correctproduct-launch
No new sanctions package announced in Israel-Iran relations by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.292
✓Correctfailure-risk
No major military escalation in Korean Peninsula by 2026-04-08
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-05T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.292
✓Correctmacro
US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07
Predicted: 46%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.292
✓Correctcrypto
BTC closes above $78,000 on May 11, 2026 23:59 UTC
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-05-12T00:00:00ZBrier: 0.302
✓Correctcrypto
Will the ETH/BTC ratio be below 0.029 on May 10, 2026 23:59 UTC?
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-05-10T23:59:00.000Z
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $560 at least once before June 1, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-06-01T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.302
✓Correctcommodities
Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,000/oz every trading day through May 31, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-05-31T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.302
✗Wrongprice-movement
Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
Bitcoin (BTC) touches $63,000 or below at any point before 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-03-31Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
NKN (CoinGecko: nkn) drops below $0.014 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongcrypto
Pippin (CoinGecko: pippin, PIPPIN) drops below $0.040 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.203
✓Correctmarkets
Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-04-04Brier: 0.302
✓Correctmacro
USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.302
✗Wrongmacro
US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongmarkets
SPY ends the week (Mar 28) higher than Monday open
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.203
✗Wrongmacro
Gordon Alpha Brief reaches 100 subscribers
Predicted: 45%Resolved: 2026-05-31
✓Correctuncategorized
Ethereum rises above ,250 within 7 days (from ,184)
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-21T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.314
✗Wronguncategorized
Bitcoin rises above $82,844 within 7 days (from $80,722)
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-21T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.194
✗Wrongtechnology
Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 revenue above Wall Street consensus estimate on May 20, 2026
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-05-21T23:59:59Z
✗Wronguncategorized
Ethereum drops below ,081 by 2026-04-20
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-20T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.194
✓Correctuncategorized
Bitcoin rises above 6,202 by 2026-04-18
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-18T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.314
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (56) on 2026-04-10
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-12T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.314
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.314
✗Wronggeopolitical
EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.194
✓Correctgeopolitical
Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days
Predicted: 44%Resolved: 2026-04-26Brier: 0.314
✗Wrongprice-movement
Ethereum closes lower than today (185) on 2026-04-17
Predicted: 43%Resolved: 2026-04-17T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.185
✓Correctprice-movement
Bitcoin closes higher than today (3490) on 2026-04-14
Predicted: 43%Resolved: 2026-04-14T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.325
✗Wrongtechnology
No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10
Predicted: 43%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.185
✓Correctcrypto
Will BTC trade above $80,000 at any point between May 3-9, 2026?
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-05-09T23:59:00.000ZBrier: 0.336
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-05-02T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.336
✓Correctmarkets
Apple (AAPL) closes above $210 by May 4, 2026
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-05-04T23:59:59.000Z
✓Correctprice-movement
Bitcoin closes higher than today (4902) on 2026-04-20
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-04-21T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.336
✗Wronguncategorized
Ethereum drops below ,097 within 7 days (from ,184)
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-04-21T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.176
✗Wronguncategorized
Bitcoin drops below $77,186 within 7 days (from $80,722)
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-04-21T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.176
✓Correctmacro
GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026
Predicted: 42%Resolved: 2026-04-11Brier: 0.336
✗Wronggeopolitical
Iran launches direct strike on Israeli territory (not via proxies) by end of Q2 2026
Predicted: 41%Resolved: 2026-06-30
✓Correctcrypto
Will BTC close above $79,000 on May 6, 2026 23:59 UTC?
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-05-06T23:59:00.000ZBrier: 0.360
✗Wrongprice-movement
Bitcoin rises above $80,000 by May 4, 2026
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-05-04T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.160
✓Correctmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $115 by May 4, 2026
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-05-04T23:59:59.000Z
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold (XAUUSD) rises above $3,500/oz by May 4, 2026
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-05-04T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.360
✗Wrongprice-movement
S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (00) on 2026-04-20
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-19T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.160
✓Correctprice-movement
Gold (GLD) stays above 35.72 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.360
✓Correctprice-movement
SPY stays above 74.64 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.360
✓Correctprice-movement
Bitcoin stays above $71,820 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.360
✗Wrongprice-movement
Gold (GLD) stays above $823 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.160
✓Correctprice-movement
SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.360
✓Correctprice-movement
S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today (86) on 2026-04-19
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-19T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.360
✓Correctmarkets
S&P 500 ETF stays above 02 through 2026-04-07
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongtechnology
OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongtechnology
No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-04-06Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongmarkets
VIX stays below 25 through end of week
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.160
✗Wrongmarkets
US Dollar Index (DXY) stays above 103 through Friday
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.160
✓Correctgeopolitical
Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h
Predicted: 40%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.360
✗Wrongprice-movement
S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
Predicted: 39%Resolved: 2026-04-22T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.152
✗Wrongprice-movement
Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20
Predicted: 39%Resolved: 2026-04-21T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.152
✗Wrongmacro-indicator
US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20
Predicted: 39%Resolved: 2026-04-20T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.152
✓Correctgeopolitical
Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April
Predicted: 39%Resolved: 2026-04-30Brier: 0.372
✗Wrongprice-movement
Ethereum rises above $2,500 by May 4, 2026
Predicted: 38%Resolved: 2026-05-04T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.144
✗Wrongprice-movement
Solana rises above $100 by May 4, 2026
Predicted: 38%Resolved: 2026-05-04T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.144
✗Wrongmarkets
NVIDIA closes above $180 by 2026-04-07
Predicted: 38%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.144
✗Wrongprice-movement
Ethereum loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 185)
Predicted: 36%Resolved: 2026-04-20T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.130
✗Wrongprice-movement
Bitcoin gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 0722)
Predicted: 36%Resolved: 2026-04-20T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.130
✓Correctmacro-indicator
No G7 country reports recession-confirming GDP data by 2026-04-15
Predicted: 36%Resolved: 2026-04-08T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.410
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC trades above $82,000 at any point between May 8-11, 2026
Predicted: 35%Resolved: 2026-05-12T00:00:00ZBrier: 0.122
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026
Predicted: 35%Resolved: 2026-05-02T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.122
✗Wrongmarkets
NVIDIA (NVDA) drops below $95 by May 4, 2026
Predicted: 35%Resolved: 2026-05-04T23:59:59.000Z
✗Wrongcrypto
BTC moves more than 5% in either direction from $79,568 within 72 hours (by May 11)
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-12T00:00:00Z
✗Wrongcrypto
USDC price moves >-3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet inflow
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-10Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongcrypto
SOL price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongcrypto
USDC price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongprice-movement
Will Solana trade above $100 by June 30, 2026?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-06-30T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.090
✓Correctprice-movement
Will Bitcoin hold above $70,000 through May 2026?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-18T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✗Wronguncategorized
Will Ethereum outperform Solana over the next 30 days?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-18T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.090
✗Wronguncategorized
Will Microsoft stock outperform Google stock over the next 30 days?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-18T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.090
✓Correctprice-movement
Will NVIDIA stock trade above $130 by May 31, 2026?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-31T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✗Wrongprice-movement
Will natural gas prices rise above $3.50/MMBtu by June 2026?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-06-17T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.090
✓Correctuncategorized
Will silver outperform gold over the next 30 days?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-18T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✓Correctprice-movement
Will crude oil (WTI) trade above $65 per barrel by May 31, 2026?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-31T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✓Correctprice-movement
Will gold stay above $3,000 per ounce through May 2026?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-18T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✓Correctuncategorized
Will QQQ outperform SPY over the next 30 days?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-18T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✓Correctprice-movement
Will the VIX stay below 25 through May 15, 2026?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-05-15T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✓Correctprice-movement
Will the S&P 500 close above $5,600 by June 30, 2026?
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-06-30T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.490
✗Wrongmarkets
S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongcrypto
Crypto Fear & Greed Index averages above 30 this week
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.090
✗Wrongcrypto
ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.045 through Friday
Predicted: 30%Resolved: 2026-03-28Brier: 0.090
✓Correctcrypto
Will SOL close above $90 on May 8, 2026 23:59 UTC?
Predicted: 28%Resolved: 2026-05-08T23:59:00.000ZBrier: 0.518
✗Wrongcrypto
USDT price moves >3% within 48h of Binance Hot Wallet outflow
Predicted: 26%Resolved: 2026-05-09Brier: 0.069
✓Correctcommodities
Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation
Predicted: 25%Resolved: 2026-12-31Brier: 0.563
✗Wrongcrypto
Will BTC move more than 3% in either direction within 24 hours of May 5, 2026 00:00 UTC?
Predicted: 22%Resolved: 2026-05-06T00:00:00.000Z
✗Wrongcrypto
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
Predicted: 21%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.042
✗Wrongproduct-launch
New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 20%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.040
✗Wronggeopolitical
Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours
Predicted: 20%Resolved: 2026-03-29Brier: 0.040
✗Wrongcrypto
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?
Predicted: 15%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.022
✗Wrongcrypto
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?
Predicted: 15%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.022
✗Wrongcrypto
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?
Predicted: 15%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.022
✗Wrongcrypto
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?
Predicted: 15%Resolved: 2026-06-01Brier: 0.022
✗Wrongprice-movement
Gold loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 751)
Predicted: 15%Resolved: 2026-04-08T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.022
✗Wrongprice-movement
Brent Crude gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
Predicted: 15%Resolved: 2026-04-08T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.022
✗Wrongproduct-launch
BOJ announces emergency rate action by 2026-04-09
Predicted: 5%Resolved: 2026-04-09T23:59:59.000ZBrier: 0.003
✓Correctmarkets
VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)
Predicted: 5%Resolved: 2026-04-07Brier: 0.902
Methodology
- Brier score = average of (probability - outcome)² across all resolved predictions
- Calibration curve compares predicted probabilities to actual hit rates
- All predictions are timestamped before resolution
- No predictions are edited after the fact — only marked resolved