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High-Edge (7)Measurable setup
Named asset, specific price level, defined timeframe — the clearest predictions to verify.
technologySearch-firstOpenBy May 20, 2026
Google Cloud reports revenue growth above 28% YoY in Q1 2026
55%
technologySearch-firstOpenBy May 18, 2026
Will Microsoft stock outperform Google stock over the next 30 days?
40%
cryptoSearch-firstOpenBy May 18, 2026
Will Ethereum outperform Solana over the next 30 days?
35%
commoditiesSearch-firstOpenBy May 18, 2026
Will silver outperform gold over the next 30 days?
35%
commoditiesSearch-firstOpenBy May 18, 2026
Will gold stay above $3,000 per ounce through May 2026?
35%
cryptoSearch-firstOpenBy Jun 30, 2026
Will Solana trade above $100 by June 30, 2026?
32%
commoditiesSearch-firstOpenBy May 31, 2026
Will crude oil (WTI) trade above $65 per barrel by May 31, 2026?
32%
Active (22)
technologyExperimentalOpenBy Jun 17, 2026
Will at least one major AI company release a model scoring above GPT-4 on MMLU by June 2026?
37%
technologyExperimentalOpenBy Jun 7, 2026
Will Apple announce an AI-powered Siri upgrade at WWDC 2026?
37%
technologyExperimentalOpenBy May 31, 2026
Will NVIDIA stock trade above $130 by May 31, 2026?
37%
cryptoExperimentalOpenBy May 18, 2026
Will Bitcoin hold above $70,000 through May 2026?
35%
commoditiesExperimentalOpenBy Jun 17, 2026
Will natural gas prices rise above $3.50/MMBtu by June 2026?
32%
Awaiting Result (10)
marketsSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 5, 2026
QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026
Floor prediction for Nasdaq-100 ETF. base rate: QQQ has maintained floors at similar buffer levels ~62% of the time.
55%
marketsSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 5, 2026
SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026
Floor prediction with generous buffer. Markets have been resilient.
55%
cryptoSearch-firstAwaiting ResultBy May 7, 2026
Ethereum closes above $1,700 on at least one day before May 7, 2026
Short-horizon ETH prediction. base rate: ETH above 1700 has held ~60% of the time in recent consolidation. Conservative threshold with buffer.
52%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Apple (AAPL) closes above $210 by May 4, 2026
42%
cryptoCoreOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Bitcoin rises above $80,000 by May 4, 2026
40%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above $115 by May 4, 2026
40%
commoditiesSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Gold (XAUUSD) rises above $3,500/oz by May 4, 2026
40%
cryptoSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Ethereum rises above $2,500 by May 4, 2026
38%
cryptoSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
Solana rises above $100 by May 4, 2026
38%
marketsSearch-firstOverdueBy May 4, 2026
NVIDIA (NVDA) drops below $95 by May 4, 2026
35%
Resolved (198)
How to read the scores: Each prediction has a Brier score measuring calibration — lower is better (0.00 = perfect, 0.25 = random chance). When Gordon says 30% and it doesn't happen, that's good calibration, not a miss. The score rewards honest uncertainty, not just being right.
cryptoCoreWrongApr 29
❌ Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
93%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 7
✅ Gold stays above $687 today (2026-04-06)
85%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.04ExcellentMar 25
✅ Gold stays above $4,500/oz through Tuesday March 25
80%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.05ExcellentApr 17
✅ Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026
77%
cryptoExperimentalWrongApr 29
❌ SOL moves down >3% within 48h of stablecoin outflow
75%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 7
❌ No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10
75%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 7
❌ Bitcoin 7-day price forecast: $71,200 target
75%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 6
✅ Fed does not announce emergency rate action by BOJ by 2026-04-06
75%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 14
❌ Brent crude stays above $100/barrel every trading day through April 10, 2026
75%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 4
✅ BTC closes above $60,000 on April 4
75%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentMar 31
✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,450/oz on March 31, 2026
75%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.06ExcellentApr 14
✅ Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026
75%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.56PoorApr 16
❌ SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026
75%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.55PoorApr 6
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($54) on 2026-04-05
74%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.55PoorApr 2
❌ Qubic (CoinGecko: qubic, QUBIC) closes above $0.0000010 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
74%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 7
❌ Brent Crude stays within 4-06 range for the next 5 days
73%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.07ExcellentApr 2
✅ S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)
73%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.07ExcellentMar 31
✅ Brent crude stays above $108/bbl at close March 31
73%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 2
❌ Ethereum (ETH) has a single calendar-day price swing exceeding 8% (high-to-low) between March 29-31, 2026 per CoinGecko
73%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 1
❌ Brent crude stays between $105-$120 for next 5 days
73%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 13
❌ BTC rises above $75,000 before April 30, 2026
73%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.53PoorApr 1
❌ BTC breaks $72,000 before April 1, 2026
73%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentApr 2
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $50 today (2026-04-01)
72%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.52PoorApr 3
❌ Bitcoin 3-day price forecast: $69,500 target
72%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31
✅ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $64,000 on March 31, 2026
72%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31
✅ Centrifuge (CoinGecko: centrifuge, CFG) stays above $0.125 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
72%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.52PoorMar 31
❌ BitMart Token (CoinGecko: bitmart-token, BMX) stays above $0.345 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
72%
commoditiesCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentApr 7
✅ Brent Crude closes higher than today ($00) on 2026-04-06
71%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.50PoorApr 4
❌ S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4
71%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.08ExcellentMar 31
✅ Bitcoin stays above $62,000 at close March 31
71%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.50PoorMar 31
❌ Avalanche (AVAX) closes above $9.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
71%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.50PoorApr 7
❌ Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026
71%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.49PoorMar 31
❌ S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026
70%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.09ExcellentApr 7
✅ S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026
70%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.49PoorMar 28
❌ Brent crude stays above $112 for next 3 days
70%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10ExcellentMar 31
✅ S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31
69%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.48PoorApr 4
❌ S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
69%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10GoodApr 2
✅ Gold stays above $736 today (2026-04-01)
68%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.46PoorApr 4
❌ VIX closes above $25 on April 4
68%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.10GoodApr 4
✅ Nasdaq Composite closes below $20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
68%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.45PoorApr 7
❌ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days
67%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.11GoodApr 14
✅ US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026
67%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.44PoorApr 16
❌ Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting
66%
cryptoExperimentalWrongApr 29
❌ SOL price moves >8% within 48h of whale transfer
65%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.42PoorApr 18
❌ Gold stays above $808 today (2026-04-17)
65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 17
✅ Gold stays above $842 today (2026-04-16)
65%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 5
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $55 today (2026-04-02)
65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodMar 31
✅ Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,350/oz on March 31
65%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.12GoodApr 6
✅ Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026
65%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.13GoodApr 16
✅ Gold stays above $836 today (2026-04-15)
64%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 18
✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-17)
63%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 15
✅ Gold stays above $809 today (2026-04-14)
63%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 17
✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-16)
62%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 14
✅ Gold stays above $754 today (2026-04-13)
62%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.14GoodApr 21
✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 45-13 range for the next 5 days
62%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.38PoorMar 31
❌ Brent crude oil closes above $110/bbl on March 31, 2026
62%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodApr 18
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $02 today (2026-04-17)
61%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodApr 14
✅ BTC does not drop below $62,000 in the next 7 days by April 9, 2026
61%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.37PoorApr 13
❌ VIX stays above $25 every trading day through April 10, 2026
61%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.15GoodMar 31
✅ EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31
61%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 16
✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-15)
60%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 15
✅ VIX closes below $20 today (2026-04-14)
60%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 13
✅ S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 00-18 range for the next 5 days
60%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 14
❌ SOL closes above $130 by April 13 2026
60%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 5
❌ S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days
60%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 6
❌ S&P 500 ETF stays below $63 through 2026-04-06
60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 4
✅ Brent crude closes above $100/barrel on April 4
60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 4
✅ Gold closes above $4,400/oz on April 4
60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28
✅ WTI crude oil trades above $100/barrel at any point before April 7, 2026
60%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
✅ Gold spot price stays above $4,400/oz for every trading day close through April 7, 2026
60%
commoditiesCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
✅ Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026
60%
commoditiesCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorApr 7
❌ Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026
60%
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.16GoodApr 14
✅ At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026
60%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.36PoorMar 27
❌ Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours
60%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.36PoorMar 27
❌ BTC stays above $70,000 for next 3 days
60%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 17
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $00 today (2026-04-16)
59%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 16
✅ Ethereum closes higher than ,184 on 2026-04-15
59%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 16
✅ Bitcoin closes higher than 0,722 on 2026-04-15
59%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodApr 13
✅ Gold stays above $676 today (2026-04-07)
59%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.35PoorApr 4
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($32) on 2026-04-04
59%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.35PoorApr 6
❌ No major military escalation in Middle East by 2026-04-06
59%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodMar 31
✅ Polygon (POL) closes above $0.085 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
59%
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.17GoodMay 1
✅ North Korea conducts ICBM test in April
59%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodMay 1
✅ BTC closes above $75,000 on 2026-04-30
58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 16
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $94 today (2026-04-15)
58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 14
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $79 today (2026-04-13)
58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 14
✅ S&P 500 ETF rises above 76 by 2026-04-09
58%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 15
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $86 today (2026-04-14)
57%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 29
✅ TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28
57%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.18GoodApr 4
✅ Solana (SOL) stays above $75 for every daily close (23:59 UTC) through April 4, 2026
57%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.19GoodApr 13
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $59 today (2026-04-07)
56%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.31PoorApr 14
❌ SOL outperforms BTC on percentage return basis over next 7 days by April 9, 2026
56%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.19GoodMar 31
✅ EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026
56%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.31PoorMar 31
❌ Chainlink (LINK) closes below $8.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
56%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.31PoorApr 4
❌ Ethereum (ETH) closes below $1,900 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
56%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMay 1
✅ ETH closes above $2,200 on 2026-04-30
55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 27
✅ Bitcoin stays above $72,000 through April 27, 2026
55%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 4
✅ Gold stays above $627 today (2026-04-02)
55%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 7
❌ Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07
55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
✅ SOL rises 5%+ within 7 days following exchange outflow signal
55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
✅ Bitcoin stays above $60,000 through April 10, 2026
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
55%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 28
✅ VIX closes above $30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026
55%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 4
❌ Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $70,000 at any point before April 4, 2026
55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 4
❌ Cardano (ADA) trades below $0.22 at any point before April 4, 2026
55%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
✅ No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ BTC stays above $65,000 for next 72 hours
55%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28
❌ Gold stays above $4,400/oz for next 3 days
55%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.30PoorApr 16
❌ Ethereum spot ETF sees net positive inflows in Q2 2026
55%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 29
✅ Fear & Greed Index stays below $20 for next 48 hours
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ BTC stays above $67,000 for next 72 hours
55%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 29
✅ Brent crude remains above $108 for next 48 hours
55%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
✅ S&P 500 does not drop more than 3% in single day this week
55%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.21FairMar 30
✅ Ethereum (ETH) above $1,920 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
54%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairApr 27
✅ Ethereum stays above $2,100 through April 27, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairMar 30
✅ Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.22FairMar 30
✅ XRP above $1.28 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
53%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.28PoorApr 4
❌ XRP closes above $1.50 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
53%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.23FairApr 27
✅ Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026
52%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.23FairApr 30
✅ Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
52%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.23FairMar 30
✅ Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.084 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
52%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.24FairApr 13
✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026
51%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 27
❌ Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026
50%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 21
❌ Meta releases a new flagship model by 2026-04-21
50%
technologyCoreCorrectBrier: 0.25PoorApr 5
✅ Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06
50%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.25PoorApr 7
✅ No major military escalation in Ukraine front lines by 2026-04-07
50%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.25PoorApr 6
❌ Brent Crude stays below $12 through 2026-04-06
50%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($56) on 2026-04-11
49%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.26PoorApr 14
✅ BTC closes above $70,000 by April 9, 2026
49%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026
49%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.24FairApr 14
❌ Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline
49%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.23FairApr 21
❌ S&P 500 ETF drops below 54 by 2026-04-20
48%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.27PoorMar 28
✅ EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026
48%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.28PoorApr 14
✅ S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026
47%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.22FairApr 17
❌ DOGE trades above $0.12 by April 16, 2026
47%
marketsExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.28PoorApr 14
✅ NASDAQ (QQQ) gains more than 2% from $582 by 2026-04-09
47%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.28PoorApr 13
✅ VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09
47%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14
✅ NASDAQ Composite closes above $18,000 by April 9, 2026
46%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14
✅ ETH closes above $2,200 by April 9, 2026
46%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 14
✅ No new sanctions package announced in Israel-Iran relations by 2026-04-09
46%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 6
✅ No major military escalation in Korean Peninsula by 2026-04-08
46%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.29PoorApr 7
✅ US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07
46%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairApr 14
❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-07
45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 31
❌ Bitcoin (BTC) touches $63,000 or below at any point before 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 30
❌ NKN (CoinGecko: nkn) drops below $0.014 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
45%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 31
❌ Pippin (CoinGecko: pippin, PIPPIN) drops below $0.040 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026
45%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28
✅ Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above $45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
45%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.30PoorMar 28
✅ USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026
45%
macroCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairApr 13
❌ US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026
45%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.20FairMar 29
❌ SPY ends the week (Mar 28) higher than Monday open
45%
cryptoSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 24
✅ Ethereum rises above ,250 within 7 days (from ,184)
44%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.19GoodApr 22
❌ Bitcoin rises above $82,844 within 7 days (from $80,722)
44%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.19GoodApr 21
❌ Ethereum drops below ,081 by 2026-04-20
44%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 21
✅ Bitcoin rises above 6,202 by 2026-04-18
44%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 13
✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($56) on 2026-04-10
44%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 7
✅ S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07
44%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.19GoodApr 14
❌ EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026
44%
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.31PoorApr 26
✅ Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days
44%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 18
❌ Ethereum closes lower than today ($185) on 2026-04-17
43%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.32PoorApr 15
✅ Bitcoin closes higher than today ($3490) on 2026-04-14
43%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 7
❌ No major tech company announces layoffs exceeding 5,000 employees by 2026-04-10
43%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorMay 2
✅ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026
42%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorApr 25
✅ Bitcoin closes higher than today ($4902) on 2026-04-20
42%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 24
❌ Ethereum drops below ,097 within 7 days (from ,184)
42%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.18GoodApr 22
❌ Bitcoin drops below $77,186 within 7 days (from $80,722)
42%
macroCoreCorrectBrier: 0.34PoorMar 28
✅ GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026
42%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 25
❌ S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($00) on 2026-04-20
40%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16
✅ Gold (GLD) stays above $35.72 today (2026-04-15)
40%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16
✅ SPY stays above $74.64 today (2026-04-15)
40%
cryptoCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16
✅ Bitcoin stays above $71,820 today (2026-04-15)
40%
commoditiesSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 16
❌ Gold (GLD) stays above $823 today (2026-04-15)
40%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 16
✅ SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)
40%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 24
✅ S&P 500 ETF closes higher than today ($86) on 2026-04-19
40%
marketsSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorApr 7
✅ S&P 500 ETF stays above $02 through 2026-04-07
40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 7
❌ OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07
40%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodApr 6
❌ No major AI lab releases a new flagship model by OpenAI by 2026-04-06
40%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28
❌ VIX stays below $25 through end of week
40%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.16GoodMar 28
❌ US Dollar Index (DXY) stays above $103 through Friday
40%
geopoliticalCoreCorrectBrier: 0.36PoorMar 28
✅ Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h
40%
marketsCoreWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 24
❌ S&P 500 ETF gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
39%
technologyCoreWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 24
❌ Microsoft stock moves more than 5% from current price by 2026-04-20
39%
macroExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.15GoodApr 21
❌ US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% by 2026-04-20
39%
geopoliticalExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.37PoorApr 30
✅ Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April
39%
marketsExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.14GoodApr 7
❌ NVIDIA closes above $180 by 2026-04-07
38%
cryptoExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.13GoodApr 21
❌ Ethereum loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 185)
36%
cryptoExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.13GoodApr 21
❌ Bitcoin gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 0722)
36%
macroExperimentalCorrectBrier: 0.41PoorApr 14
✅ No G7 country reports recession-confirming GDP data by 2026-04-15
36%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.12GoodMay 2
❌ S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026
35%
marketsSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28
❌ S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)
30%
cryptoCoreWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28
❌ Crypto Fear & Greed Index averages above 30 this week
30%
cryptoSearch-firstWrongBrier: 0.09ExcellentMar 28
❌ ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.045 through Friday
30%
commoditiesSearch-firstCorrectBrier: 0.56PoorMar 30
✅ Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation
25%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.04ExcellentApr 14
❌ New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09
20%
geopoliticalCoreWrongBrier: 0.04ExcellentMar 30
❌ Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours
20%
commoditiesExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 14
❌ Gold loses more than 4% in the next 7 days (from 751)
15%
commoditiesExperimentalWrongBrier: 0.02ExcellentApr 14
❌ Brent Crude gains more than 3% in the next 7 days (from 00)
15%
macroCoreWrongBrier: 0.00ExcellentApr 14
❌ BOJ announces emergency rate action by 2026-04-09
5%
marketsCoreCorrectBrier: 0.90PoorApr 7
✅ VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)
5%
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