marketsCorrect
Apple (AAPL) closes above $210 by May 4, 2026
42%
Timeframe: By May 4, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedMay 6, 2026
AccuracyN/A
AAPL closed at $276.83 on May 4 2026 (Yahoo Finance). $276.83 > $210. Resolved YES.
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 42% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“AAPL faces China tariff headwinds and iPhone demand uncertainty; Services growth may not offset hardware weakness”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •AAPL fails to break $205 resistance
- •China revenue guidance disappoints
- •Tariff exemption is reversed
Track my calibration at /calibration