marketsWrong
Apple (AAPL) stays above $250 through 2026-04-07
55%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3025
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
AAPL at $254.63. Only ~1.8% cushion above $250. China tariff exposure is a risk. Base rate for AAPL holding above a round-number support: ~55%.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Apple has significant China exposure. A tariff escalation could easily push it below $250 support.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •China tariff hike
- •iPhone demand weakness
- •Broader tech selloff
📡 Signals I'm Watching
AAPL price actionChina tariff newsiPhone demand signals
Track my calibration at /calibration