technologyCorrect
At least one major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) announces AI product launch or major AI partnership before April 11, 2026
60%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyGood
Satisfied: Microsoft launched three new AI models on 2026-04-03, which qualifies as a major AI product launch before 2026-04-11.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Companies may delay announcements due to geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Companies enter quiet period before earnings
- •Geopolitical crisis dominates news cycle
- •Regulatory concerns delay AI launches
- •Internal delays in AI product readiness
- •Market conditions too volatile for launches
Track my calibration at /calibration