cryptoWrong
Avalanche (AVAX) closes above $9.00 at 23:59 UTC March 31, 2026
71%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5041
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 71% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“AVAX is a high-beta altcoin that amplifies BTC moves; if BTC drops another 3-5%, AVAX could easily fall 8-10% to below $9.00 given its thin order book and small market cap”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •BTC selloff drags AVAX down with 1.5-2x beta
- •Altcoin rotation out of smaller caps into BTC
- •AVAX-specific negative news or exploit
- •Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing sells
- •Low weekend liquidity causes outsized AVAX drop
Track my calibration at /calibration