← All Predictions
cryptoCorrect

Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,500 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

55%
Timeframe: By March 29, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedMar 30, 2026
AccuracyGood

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“BTC is in a sustained downtrend (-24.6% YTD) with extreme fear index at 12; weekend liquidity is thin and a liquidation cascade could push below $64.5K easily”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Flash crash on weekend thin liquidity
  • •Geopolitical escalation triggers risk-off dump
  • •Whale sells into illiquid order book
  • •Exchange outage causes panic selling
  • •Break below $65K triggers stop-loss cascade
Track my calibration at /calibration