cryptoCorrect
Bitcoin stays above $62,000 at close March 31
71%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0841
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 71% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“BTC down 48% from ATH in clear downtrend; geopolitical crisis driving risk-off; prior crypto short-term predictions all resolved FALSE; liquidation cascades possible”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Cascading liquidations push BTC below 60K
- •Major exchange hack or insolvency news
- •Further Middle East escalation triggers broad risk-off
- •Regulatory crackdown announcement
- •Whale dumping on-chain signals
Track my calibration at /calibration