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cryptoWrong

Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $70,000 at any point before April 4, 2026

55%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3025
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Risk-off environment from Iran war keeps institutional crypto buying subdued”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Equity selloff drags crypto lower
  • •Oil crisis strengthens dollar vs crypto
  • •Regulatory crackdown announcement
  • •Whale liquidation cascade
  • •Risk-off sentiment intensifies before April 6 deadline
Track my calibration at /calibration