cryptoCorrect
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $64,000 on March 31, 2026
72%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0784
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 72% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“BTC is in a strong downtrend (-24.6% YTD, -3.3% in 24h); risk-off sentiment from oil crisis could accelerate selling below $64K”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Broader crypto market capitulation on geopolitical fear
- •BTC breaks below $60K support on liquidation cascade
- •Regulatory crackdown announcement
- •Exchange insolvency or major hack event
- •Correlation with equities drags BTC lower as S&P enters correction
Track my calibration at /calibration