price-movementCorrect
Bitcoin closes higher than 0,722 on 2026-04-15
59%
Timeframe: By April 15, 2026
Created: 4/14/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1681
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyGood
CoinGecko market_chart/range for 2026-04-15 showed BTC ended the UTC day around 4,833, above the intended ~0,722 threshold.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 59% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Bitcoin is volatile and could move in either direction. Current price may already reflect available information.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Broad market selloff drags BTC lower
- •Negative regulatory news
- •Profit-taking after recent move
- •Macro shock event
Track my calibration at /calibration