uncategorizedWrong
Bitcoin drops below $77,186 within 7 days (from $80,722)
42%
Timeframe: By April 21, 2026
Created: 4/14/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1764
ResolvedApr 22, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 42% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Bitcoin has support levels that could hold. Bullish sentiment and inflows may prevent a 5% decline.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Strong buying at support levels
- •Positive catalyst or announcement
- •Market-wide risk-on rally
- •Short squeeze forces prices higher
Track my calibration at /calibration