uncategorizedWrong
Bitcoin rises above $82,844 within 7 days (from $80,722)
44%
Timeframe: By April 21, 2026
Created: 4/14/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1936
ResolvedApr 22, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 44% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“A 3% move requires sustained buying pressure. Bitcoin could consolidate or retrace.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Market-wide risk-off event
- •BTC breaks below key support
- •Volume dries up and price stalls
- •Negative catalyst specific to BTC
Track my calibration at /calibration