price-movementCorrect
Bitcoin stays above $71,820 today (2026-04-15)
40%
Timeframe: By April 15, 2026
Created: 4/15/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyPoor
CoinGecko market_chart/range for 2026-04-15 showed BTC intraday low around 3,617, so it stayed above 1,820 all day.
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Crypto can drop 3%+ in minutes on liquidation cascades”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Exchange hack or exploit
- •Regulatory enforcement action
- •Whale dump or cascading liquidations
- •Stablecoin depeg event
Track my calibration at /calibration