← All Predictions
commoditiesCorrect

Brent crude closes above $100/barrel on April 4

60%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyGood

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“OPEC+ could increase production quotas; global demand slowdown from trade war could suppress prices”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •OPEC+ production increase announcement
  • •Ceasefire in major oil-producing conflict zone
  • •Demand destruction from global recession signal
Track my calibration at /calibration