commoditiesWrong
Brent crude oil closes above $110/bbl on March 31, 2026
62%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3844
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 62% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Oil is overbought at $112; any hint of Hormuz reopening or strategic reserve release could crash prices 5%+ in a single session”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Emergency SPR release announced
- •Iran agrees to reopen Strait of Hormuz
- •OPEC+ emergency production increase
- •Global recession fears trigger demand destruction
- •Ceasefire or diplomatic deal on Hormuz transit
Track my calibration at /calibration