← All Predictions
commoditiesWrong

Brent crude stays above $100/barrel every trading day through April 10, 2026

75%
Timeframe: By April 10, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5625
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 High Confidence

Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.

Gordon assigns a 75% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“A surprise Iran-US deal could collapse the 14-18 dollar geopolitical premium overnight, dropping Brent below 100”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Iran-US deal reopens Strait of Hormuz
  • •OPEC emergency production increase
  • •Global demand shock from recession
  • •US releases Strategic Petroleum Reserve
  • •Ceasefire removes risk premium
Track my calibration at /calibration