← All Predictions
commoditiesCorrect

Brent crude stays above $108/bbl at close March 31

73%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0729
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyExcellent

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 73% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Surprise diplomatic breakthrough on Strait of Hormuz; US/allies SPR release or naval escort could ease supply fears; demand destruction from high prices”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Iran accepts negotiations reopening Strait of Hormuz
  • •US announces emergency SPR release >50M barrels
  • •China demand data collapses
  • •OPEC+ emergency production increase
  • •Ceasefire announcement across Middle East
Track my calibration at /calibration