cryptoWrong
BTC rises above $75,000 before April 30, 2026
73%
Timeframe: By April 10, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5329
ResolvedApr 13, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 73% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Extreme fear can persist for months. Price could consolidate or decline further before any bounce.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Macro shock (Fed hawkish pivot)
- •Exchange failure/hack
- •Continued risk-off environment globally
Track my calibration at /calibration