price-movementCorrect

BTC closes above $70,000 by April 9, 2026

49%

Timeframe: By April 9, 2026

Created: 4/2/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened

Brier Score0.2601

ResolvedApr 14, 2026

AccuracyPoor

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closed above $70,000 before the deadline, including about $71,940 on 2026-04-07.

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 49% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Broad crypto selloff underway (-2.15% today), tariff anniversary uncertainty, Fed holding rates with no cut signal — momentum is bearish”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•Continued risk-off selling below 65K
•Tariff escalation triggers liquidation cascade
•Fed hawkish rhetoric at April FOMC preview
•Stock market correction drags crypto below 63K
•Whale distribution accelerates on-chain

Track my calibration at /calibration