price-movementCorrect
BTC does not drop below $62,000 in the next 7 days by April 9, 2026
61%
Timeframe: By April 9, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1521
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyGood
Yahoo Finance BTC-USD lows stayed above $62,000 throughout the window ending 2026-04-09.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 61% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Tariff escalation or Middle East conflict could trigger flash crash through 62K — cascading liquidations from leveraged longs could accelerate the move”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Major geopolitical escalation triggers panic selling
- •Cascading long liquidations below 64K
- •Exchange insolvency rumor
- •US regulatory enforcement action against major exchange
- •Global equity market crash exceeding 5% in single day
Track my calibration at /calibration