Colombia's 2026 presidential election goes to a second-round runoff after the May 31 first round
❌ Prediction Wrong
Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“A consolidation of right-wing vote behind a single candidate could produce a first-round majority. Late polling momentum could push one candidate above 50%.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Right-wing vote consolidates behind single candidate above 50%
- •Major candidate withdrawal shifts votes to clear majority
- •Electoral crisis or postponement prevents first-round vote
- •Surprise surge gives one candidate first-round majority