commoditiesCorrect
Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation
25%
Timeframe: By December 31, 2026
Created: 3/21/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.5625
ResolvedMar 30, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Low Confidence
Gordon thinks this is unlikely, but not impossible. Tail risk scenario.
Gordon assigns a 25% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Iran-Israel tensions, Houthi disruptions, potential Strait of Hormuz issues. Tail risk but asymmetric payoff.
Track my calibration at /calibration