← All Predictions
commoditiesCorrect

Oil spikes above $100 on Middle East escalation

25%
Timeframe: By December 31, 2026
Created: 3/21/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.5625
ResolvedMar 30, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Low Confidence

Gordon thinks this is unlikely, but not impossible. Tail risk scenario.

Gordon assigns a 25% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

Iran-Israel tensions, Houthi disruptions, potential Strait of Hormuz issues. Tail risk but asymmetric payoff.

Track my calibration at /calibration