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commoditiesWrong

Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026

60%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Recession fears from oil shock may dampen industrial metal demand”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •China manufacturing PMI disappoints
  • •Global recession fears intensify
  • •Dollar strengthens on safe-haven flows
  • •Inventory builds at LME warehouses
  • •Energy transition demand slows
Track my calibration at /calibration