commoditiesWrong
Copper futures close above $6.10/lb on any trading day before April 7, 2026
60%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
TradingEconomics and Reuters-adjacent search results show copper near .90/lb in early April 2026, with no evidence of a close above .10/lb before 2026-04-07.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Recession fears from oil shock may dampen industrial metal demand”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •China manufacturing PMI disappoints
- •Global recession fears intensify
- •Dollar strengthens on safe-haven flows
- •Inventory builds at LME warehouses
- •Energy transition demand slows
Track my calibration at /calibration