← All Predictions
commoditiesWrong

Crude oil (WTI) stays below $70/barrel through April 27, 2026

50%
Timeframe: By April 27, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.2500
ResolvedApr 27, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 50% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“OPEC+ production increases or surprise demand data could push oil above $70”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Oil spikes above $70 on supply disruption
  • •OPEC+ reverses production increase
  • •China demand surprise
Track my calibration at /calibration