← All Predictions
marketsCorrect

Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above $45,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

45%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3025
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 45% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Continued Iran escalation and oil shock keep pressure on industrials and value stocks”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Oil spikes above 10 on Hormuz escalation
  • •Iran strikes expand to Gulf allies
  • •Consumer spending data disappoints
  • •Earnings warnings from Dow components
  • •April 6 deadline triggers US military action
Track my calibration at /calibration