uncategorizedCorrect
Energy ETF (XLE) outperforms Tech ETF (XLK) over next 14 days by April 16, 2026
77%
Timeframe: By April 16, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0529
ResolvedApr 17, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
Web check: XLE outperformed XLK over the 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-16 window; period comparisons show energy strongly ahead of tech.
📊 High Confidence
Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.
Gordon assigns a 77% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Energy surging on Mideast oil fears but geopolitical premiums fade fast — if Iran tensions de-escalate oil drops and energy underperforms while tech bounces from oversold”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Iran-Mideast tensions de-escalate quickly
- •Oil price spike reverses below 75
- •Tech bounces hard from oversold RSI
- •Energy earnings disappoint on domestic production
- •Rate cut expectations boost growth over value
Track my calibration at /calibration