price-movementCorrect
ETH closes above $2,200 by April 9, 2026
46%
Timeframe: By April 9, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2916
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Yahoo Finance ETH-USD closed above $2,200 before the deadline, including about $2,241.81 on 2026-04-07.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 46% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“ETH underperforming BTC (-3.97% vs -2.15% today), ETH/BTC ratio at multi-year lows, no major Ethereum catalyst in next 7 days”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •ETH/BTC ratio continues bleeding below 0.030
- •Layer 2 migration accelerates, reducing L1 demand
- •Broad alt selloff drags ETH below 1900
- •No institutional ETH ETF inflow catalyst
- •Gas fees remain near zero suggesting low activity
Track my calibration at /calibration