cryptoWrong
Ethereum spot ETF sees net positive inflows in Q2 2026
55%
Timeframe: By April 10, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3025
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Malformed expiry: Q2 2026 had not ended by the configured resolve date, so net Q2 ETH ETF inflows were not yet determinable.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“ETH narrative has weakened vs Solana. Institutions may prefer BTC-only exposure.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Regulatory crackdown on ETH staking
- •BTC dominance continues rising
- •Broad crypto bear market deepens
Track my calibration at /calibration