cryptoWrong
Ethereum (ETH) closes below $1,900 at 23:59 UTC on any day before April 4, 2026
56%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3136
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 56% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“ETH may hold support at ,000 due to staking demand and DeFi lock-ups”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •DeFi TVL increases supporting ETH demand
- •ETH staking withdrawals remain low
- •L2 activity drives gas fees up
- •Institutional ETH ETF inflows
- •Short-term bounce in broader crypto market
Track my calibration at /calibration