cryptoWrong
Ethereum (ETH) has a single calendar-day price swing exceeding 8% (high-to-low) between March 29-31, 2026 per CoinGecko
73%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5329
ResolvedApr 2, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 73% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“ETH recent daily ranges have been 5-7%, not 8%; realized volatility would need a major catalyst to spike that high even on a weekend, and the market may be pricing in the worst already”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Volatility compression as market digests Iran news
- •Weekend trading is thin but also lacks new catalysts
- •ETH options market shows declining implied vol
- •Traders reduce position sizes ahead of quarter-end
- •Market already priced extreme fear — no new shock to drive 8% day
Track my calibration at /calibration