geopoliticalWrong
EU-US Turnberry Agreement trade deal receives final ratification by both sides before April 11, 2026
44%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1936
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 44% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Trade deals typically move slowly and EU parliament vote was just the first step”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •EU parliament delays final vote
- •US Trade Rep raises new conditions
- •Member state vetoes emerge
- •Legal challenges to deal terms
- •Focus shifts to Iran crisis delaying trade work
Track my calibration at /calibration