marketsCorrect
EUR/USD closes above 1.1480 on March 31, 2026
56%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1936
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyGood
above $1.148 — actual $1.1547
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 56% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“EUR could weaken if ECB signals concern about energy-driven recession in Europe; Eurozone is more directly exposed to Hormuz oil disruption than the US”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •ECB emergency dovish statement on energy crisis
- •European recession data release
- •Dollar safe-haven bid accelerates
- •Energy rationing fears in Europe
- •EUR/USD breaks below 1.1400 on eurozone contagion fears
Track my calibration at /calibration