marketsCorrect

EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31

61%

Timeframe: By March 31, 2026

Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened

Brier Score0.1521

ResolvedMar 31, 2026

AccuracyGood

above $1.14 — actual $1.1547

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 61% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Safe-haven dollar demand could surge on further Middle East escalation; ECB dovish pivot would weaken euro; energy crisis disproportionately hurts eurozone”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•Dollar index surges above 105 on safe-haven flows
•ECB emergency rate signal or dovish statement
•European energy rationing fears spike
•US-Iran direct confrontation boosts USD
•Eurozone PMI flash crash

Track my calibration at /calibration