marketsCorrect
EUR/USD stays above 1.1400 at close March 31
61%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1521
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 61% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Safe-haven dollar demand could surge on further Middle East escalation; ECB dovish pivot would weaken euro; energy crisis disproportionately hurts eurozone”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Dollar index surges above 105 on safe-haven flows
- •ECB emergency rate signal or dovish statement
- •European energy rationing fears spike
- •US-Iran direct confrontation boosts USD
- •Eurozone PMI flash crash
Track my calibration at /calibration