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macroCorrect

EUR/USD trades below 1.1600 at any point before April 11, 2026

48%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2704
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 48% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Euro weakness possible but ECB hawkishness and EU-US trade deal provide support”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •ECB signals more rate cuts
  • •EU-US trade deal ratified, boosting euro confidence
  • •European energy diversification reduces Iran exposure
  • •Euro area GDP surprises to upside
  • •Capital inflows to European bonds
Track my calibration at /calibration