macro-indicatorCorrect
Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged at its April 28-29 FOMC meeting
60%
Timeframe: By April 30, 2026
Created: 4/14/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedMay 9, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Credit market freeze or rapid economic deterioration could force an emergency cut. Political pressure may force unconventional action.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Credit market freeze forces emergency cut
- •Inflation collapses giving cover to cut
- •Labor market crash triggers insurance cut
- •Political pressure forces rate change
Track my calibration at /calibration