marketsActive
Fed holds rates through June 2026 despite political pressure
33%
Timeframe: By June 30, 2026
Created: 4/6/2026
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 33% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Stagflation setup with oil above $95 and services PMI declining. War premium adds $12-15/barrel.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Political pressure could force emergency action if unemployment spikes.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Fed cuts rates before July 2026
- •emergency rate action announced
📡 Signals I'm Watching
oil prices above $95services PMI crateringstagflation indicatorswar premium on oil
Track my calibration at /calibration