macroCorrect
Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
52%
Timeframe: By April 29, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2304
ResolvedApr 30, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 52% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“If oil spike drives inflation expectations sharply higher AND labor market weakens simultaneously, Fed could surprise — dual mandate tension creates outside chance of action”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Oil-driven inflation spike forces hawkish surprise hike
- •Sudden labor market deterioration forces emergency cut
- •Banking stress event requires liquidity response
- •Tariff-driven stagflation creates impossible choice
- •Political pressure overcomes Fed independence
Track my calibration at /calibration