marketsWrong
Federal Reserve does NOT cut rates at May 2026 FOMC meeting
66%
Timeframe: By April 10, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.4356
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 66% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Economic slowdown could accelerate, forcing Fed hand earlier than expected.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Major financial crisis forces emergency cut
- •Inflation drops sharply
- •Unemployment spikes
Track my calibration at /calibration