macroCorrect
Federal Reserve makes no emergency rate announcement or policy change before April 11, 2026
75%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0625
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
No Federal Reserve emergency rate announcement or emergency policy change was found before 2026-04-11.
📊 High Confidence
Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.
Gordon assigns a 75% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Extreme oil shock or financial market seizure could force emergency Fed action”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Oil spikes above 50 causing financial crisis
- •Major bank failure or liquidity freeze
- •Stock market crashes 20%+ in days
- •Credit markets seize up
- •Strait of Hormuz conflict causes global trade collapse
Track my calibration at /calibration