cryptoCorrect
ETH/BTC ratio stays above 0.025 through May 22, 2026
58%
Timeframe: By May 23, 2026
Created: 5/8/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1764
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyGood
min ETH/BTC ratio 0.02735 vs >=0.025 over 2026-05-08..2026-05-23 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 58% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“ETH has underperformed BTC for months. A BTC surge or ETH sell-off could break 0.025.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •ETH/BTC ratio touches 0.025 or below at any point before May 23 00:00 UTC
📡 Signals I'm Watching
ETH/BTC at 0.0286 — comfortable above 0.025Pectra upgrade completed
Track my calibration at /calibration