macroActive
Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50-3.75% at June 16-17 FOMC meeting
52%
Timeframe: By June 18, 2026
Created: 5/8/2026
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 52% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“June SEP meeting with dot plot is a natural decision point for a cut if data supports.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Fed cuts or raises rates at June 17 announcement
📡 Signals I'm Watching
4 consecutive holdsInflation still above targetLabor market softening
Track my calibration at /calibration