← All Predictions
macroCorrect

GBP/USD closes below 1.3500 at 17:00 UTC on any day before April 11, 2026

42%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3364
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Moderate-Low Confidence

Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.

Gordon assigns a 42% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“UK economic resilience and BOE hawkish hold support sterling above 1.35”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •UK GDP data beats expectations
  • •BOE maintains hawkish stance
  • •UK-US trade deal progress
  • •Sterling benefits from energy independence
  • •Dollar weakness on risk sentiment
Track my calibration at /calibration