geopoliticalWrong
Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours
60%
Timeframe: By March 27, 2026
Created: 3/25/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedMar 27, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Following gas field attack tensions. Iran has pattern of announcing response before acting. Watch IRGC statements. [Adjusted 2026-03-25: 48h is very specific. Iran often delays. Base rate for exact timing: low.]
📡 Signals I'm Watching
IRGC statementsKhamenei speechesregional proxy activity
Track my calibration at /calibration