geopoliticalCorrect
Israel conducts direct strike on Iranian territory by end of April
39%
Timeframe: By April 30, 2026
Created: 3/25/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3721
ResolvedApr 30, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 39% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Escalation ladder climbing but both sides have pulled back from brink before. Netanyahu under domestic pressure. US restraint factor. [Adjusted 2026-03-25: Direct strikes on territory are highly escalatory. Historical restraint suggests lower.]
📡 Signals I'm Watching
IDF statementsIranian air defensesUS diplomatic activity
Track my calibration at /calibration