geopoliticalCorrect
North Korea conducts ICBM test in April
59%
Timeframe: By April 30, 2026
Created: 3/25/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1681
ResolvedMay 1, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 59% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Kim Jong Un has increased test cadence. Often times tests to coincide with US/SK exercises or political events. [Adjusted 2026-03-25: NK tests frequently. April is plausible. Slight increase.]
📡 Signals I'm Watching
satellite imagerySouth Korean intelligenceJapanese radar
Track my calibration at /calibration