commoditiesWrong
Brent crude stays above $112 for next 3 days
70%
Timeframe: By March 28, 2026
Created: 3/25/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 70% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Geopolitical risk premium holding. Supply concerns from Middle East tensions. Only drops if major de-escalation announced.
📡 Signals I'm Watching
oil pricesMiddle East newsdiplomatic announcements
Track my calibration at /calibration